In Saturday’s Champions League final, two of European soccer’s most
decorated clubs will square off. Real Madrid will be looking to add to its
record 12 European championships, while Juventus aims to win its third and
first since the Calciopoli scandal forced the club out of the Italian top
flight in 2006.
The match is expected to be close, with Real Madrid slight
favorites at 56 percent in the Soccer Power Index. Juventus’ defense has failed
to keep a clean sheet only once in the knockout round, while Real Madrid is
riding a 64-match scoring streak. The Italian club will need to find a way to
contain a dominant Real attack, while Madrid’s bend-but-don’t-break defense
will be tested by Juventus’ dangerous inside forwards. Here are the players to
watch as both sides seek to establish their game plan.
Cristiano Ronaldo, Real Madrid
Even at 32 years of age, Ronaldo is still the man defenses must plan
around. Scoring 103 Champions League goals in your career will do that. Real
Madrid’s attack is relatively simple, built to get the ball in to Ronaldo in
the center of the 18-yard box.
While most top clubs have cut back on the use of
crosses — this season in the Premier League, none of the top six clubs used
crosses to assist more than 40 percent of their shots from the center of the
penalty area — Real Madrid used crosses to assist 44 percent of its shots from
that area. This strategy focuses on getting the ball to Ronaldo even with risky
or difficult passes, and the striker pays it off with shot totals that only
Lionel Messi can match. At 5.5 shots per 90 minutes played in La Liga, Ronaldo
got off a higher rate of shot attempts than anyone in the top five leagues with
at least 2,000 minutes played.
Real Madrid
will force the ball to Cristiano by whatever means are available. There may be
no solution to a player as great as Ronaldo, who scored eight goals in the
quarter- and semifinals, but if Juventus can hold him to three or four shots
that could make the difference.
Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane, Real Madrid
Along with
crossing, another way Real Madrid is unusual among the world’s elite club is
its relaxed midfield defense. Real Madrid only breaks up about 45 percent of
opposition midfield possessions within three passes, which is 12th in La Liga.1
This relative lack of pressure means that opposition clubs can complete more
passes into dangerous areas. Real conceded about 17 open-play completed passes
per match into the penalty area and about 62 completed passes in the center of
the pitch in the attacking third. Real Madrid’s numbers resemble more closely
those of counterattacking sides such as Atletico Madrid and Monaco, who both
average 67 final-third passes and 19 penalty-area passes conceded per match.
However,
Real holds possession at higher rates. While Atletico and Monaco plan to pack
more defenders behind the ball to break up attacks in dangerous areas, Real
Madrid is more likely to depend on its center back pairing of Ramos and Varane
to make plays. Madrid’s center backs make about 3.5 open-play clearances from
the penalty area per match, more than any of the top clubs beside Atleti and
Monaco. The CBs must hold the line for Real’s defensive strategy to work.
Juventus can expect to have opportunities to play dangerous passes, and it will
require excellent center back play to hold the Italian club scoreless.
Paulo Dybala, Juventus
When
Juventus sold Paul Pogba last summer to Manchester United for roughly $120
million, chairman Andrea Agnelli had a decision to make. The club, which can
boast an array of scudettos but only a bare two European Cups, could use the
money to rebuild or take a shot at glory. Juve chose the latter route: Using
the Pogba cash on veteran Napoli striker Gonzalo Higuain ($100 million) and
Roma midfielder Miralem Pjanic ($36 million). While Higuain and Pjanic have
been effective, this win-now strategy would not have worked without the
development of Paulo Dybala into an elite force.
The Argentine attacker not
only gets on the scoresheet with a combined 15 goals and 7 assists between Serie
A and Champions League, he also offers Juventus a replacement for Pogba’s
creativity and ball progression. Pogba led Juventus last year with 4.5
progressive passes or runs per 90 minutes2, including 1.4 passes or runs into
the penalty area per 90. This year Dybala has picked up the load, at 4.2 and
1.2, respectively. No one else on Juventus is close (Pjanic is next with
2.8/0.7). When Juventus is attacking, Real Madrid will need to watch for Dybala
and prevent him from creating chances on the ball. If Dybala can get free to
move the attack forward as he did against Monaco, Juventus have a chance.
Mario Mandzukic, Juventus
The
journeyman forward has been reborn at Juventus as a do-everything winger.
Having played more than 95 percent of his minutes since 2011-12 at striker, the
Croatian spent under half his minutes up top this season, playing mostly out
wide instead. His shot totals dropped from an average of about 2.9 shot
attempts per 90 over the previous five seasons to 1.8 shots per 90 this year.
But patrolling the left wing, he has been a highly effective defender.
Opposition clubs started fast attacking moves down Juventus’ left wing 146
times this season, but only eight times did the opposition continue that move
at speed into the penalty area. 3 That rate of conceding attacks from the wing
was the third-lowest in Serie A behind Atalanta and Fiorentina.
Despite
adjusting to a new position, Mandzukic helped prevent dangerous attacks down
his wing. Real Madrid will pose his most difficult test all year, and one can
expect Real may target the former striker.
Madrid may
be slightly favored but it will be a game of margins, and whoever can win these
key positional battles should take the match.
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